It is about that time of year when Groundhog Day rolls around, or more widely known as a scapegoat to blame the coming winter storms on.

Groundhog Day, which occurs every Feb. 2, is a tradition dating back to around 1840. Each year, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, thousands flock to witness the groundhog (usually different every year, despite being dubbed “Punxsutawney Phil”) observe his shadow. According to the myth, if the groundhog sees its shadow, six more weeks of winter will follow suit; otherwise, spring will come early. 

The tradition of Groundhog Day is said to have originated from multiple different locations, one of the most prominent being Dutch settlers who first came to Pennsylvania when settling. After being immortalized in the movie “Groundhog Day,” starring actor Bill Murray, the holiday grew exponentially in popularity, changing from around one thousand followers to more than ten thousand annually. To this day, most of the U.S. and parts of Canada celebrate the holiday.

It is important to note that Phil is not usually accurate. Of the some 182 times Phil has been called into play, only 17 times have resulted in an early spring and 103 extended winters, with 62 years being predicted completely incorrect. This results in around a 10.7% occurrence of a true early winter predicted by Phil, leading most to wonder how much of a joke the holiday can really be some years.

In addition to Pennsylvania, other states utilize the magical properties of groundhogs to forecast the coming weeks. These places include “Staten Island Chuck” of Staten Island, NY, who bit Bill de Blasio when being handled in 2009, and “Woodstock Willie” of Woodstock, IL, who was the groundhog shot in “Groundhog Day.” Canada is also known to observe the holiday in some places, such as Wiarton, Ontario, where Wiarton Willie gives his best estimate of how long winter may last.

Regardless of the debate regarding the accuracy of Phil (or, any of the other “meteorologists” mentioned above), Groundhog Day continues to be a popular tradition, annually summoning the masses to pray for a groundhog-accelerated winter into spring.